10 January, 2011

2010 Tech Predictions - Recap

At the beginning of 2010, I made some tech predictions as well as discussed some other technology issues. Here I will summarize how well I did with my predictions. In a nutshell, most did not come to pass, but the issues remain, so you could say I was just early.
  1. Amazon will adopt the ePub format for the Kindle. While Amazon has gotten a lot of pressure on the hardware side, their software version of the Kindle for other devices has kept them in the drivers seat for eReaders. With that position, they had no reason to add the ePub format.
  2. The iPhone will be on Verizon. This same prediction was made by many, and we still haven't seen it. Of course the rumors is alive that Verizon will get the iPhone this year. Look for my 2011 predictions to hear my position on this.
  3. Significant data loss/corruption on a Cloud platform. I couldn't find any evidence that this occurred. While in some cases there may have been a loss of service, it appears there were no data issues reported.
  4. Internet Explorer's market share will drop below 50%. MarketShare reports IE at 57.08% from 62.69%. Perhaps the many new Windows 7 PC sold in 2010 helped Microsoft stay above 50%.
  5. Microsoft will buy Palm. I was right that Palm would be purchased, but the buyer was not Microsoft, rather it was HP.
Some of the other issues I had discussed, included net neutrality and network management. In 2010 we saw this issue heat up further, with some rules passed in December by the FCC, though I still don't believe the general public knows about this or the implications. Interestinly enough, the sale of NBC/Universal to Comcast has also not gone through either, which is directly related to the conflict of interest and net neutrality created by data delivery owners being content owners too.

Also of ongoing debate and issue is the generic top-level-domain names (gTLD). While we have seen the adoption of a new gTLDs policy by ICANN, CAMDA (Coalition Against Domain Name Abuse) has sent a letter to the U.S. House of Representatives, Congressman Cliff Stearns (R-FL), to review ICANNs gTLD policy. Among other arguments, CMADA's letter estimates, "...that defensive registrations in new generic TLDs alone will cost businesses upwards of $746 million. "

To conclude, other than HP buying Palm instead of Microsoft, I think the issues I predicted and discussed a year ago are still real and very likely to occur in some form.

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