11 January, 2010

2010 Tech Predictions

2009 was a very difficult year for our economy, and many friends and colleagues lost their jobs and/or their homes. While I can't very well predict how our economy will do in 2010, I will try to out due my 1 for 3 predictions of 2009 with my 2010 predictions. In no particular order, here are my 5 top tech predictions for 2010.
  1. With the number of players increasing in the eBook Reader arena, Amazon will adopt the ePub format as a supported file format.
  2. The next version of the iPhone, announced this spring, will be available on Verizon.
  3. Similar to the data loss that occurred for Sidekick users in 2009, a significant data loss or corruption will happen on a Cloud platform. Though hopefully like with the Sidekick data being recovered, even if the data is recovered, it will send a strong message to CIOs and others considering moves to the Cloud.
  4. Depending on the reports you read, the browser war statistics can vary widely. Regardless, Internet Explorer continues to dominate, despite lowering numbers. Using MarketShare as a reference, by the end of 2010, Internet Explorer’s market share will drop below 50%. MarketShare currently reports Internet Explorer to have a 62.69% market share, with Firefox coming in second with a 24.61% market share.
  5. Microsoft will buy Palm and will make a Palm phone with Zune or a Zune phone featuring Palm WebOS.
There are several other predictions that I though about, but never quite got to the formalization stage. For example, there's no lost love for AT&T right now, particularily with their cell phone coverage, but to an extent with their position on net neutrality and their network management too. Likewise Comcast continues to be in the middle of several battles around net neutrality as the same time they're trying to purchase controlling interest in NBC/Universal. Will the FCC be able to step in and protect consumers? Or will they make it worse, or have no say at all? Will congress step in on the net neutrality argument?

Who knows what will happen around the naming space and ICANN? Will we get too many to count top-level domains (TLDs) as planned? And if so, will this really make cyber-squatting worse or perhaps most Internet users wont adopt the new TLDs, and therefore minimizing additional cyber-squatting problems.

There continues to be a lot of buzz about an Apple tablet, while HP and Microsoft have announced a partnership on a slate, which appears to be a competitor in the tablet space. Likewise I think the tablet/slate is going to directly compete the eBook Readers, which is quickly becoming a crowded market.

I think it was Buzz Out Loud that discussed the notion of more devices with built-in, no additional cost, wireless downloads, similar to the Amazon Kindle's Whisper Sync, so no prediction in that area. But perhaps we might see a phone/tablet combo device. In its tablet configuration, you can use the wireless 3G/4G data networks and a blue tooth headset. But the phone/tablet would have a detachable "phone" that could work stand-alone for those times you don't want to carry the larger tablet.

How will social networking continue to evolve over the next 12 months? It seems Facebook and Twitter are both struggling to find a profitable business model. Facebook continues to change its privacy and security settings, while the user interface has gotten much more Twitter-like. YEar end rumors have Twitter being purchased by Facebook, Google, or even Microsoft. In a year from now, will we even care?

Finally, I expect to see continued innovation with green technology, but it's difficult to say what exactly.

Wow, so many fun things to consider, and a few that worry me (predominately net neutrality issues, and of course the economy). Here's to a great 2010!

No comments: